Future scenarios

Developing alternative futures for Palestine

Developing alternative futures for Palestine

The Palestinian political system, in its current form, is not well-positioned or equipped to conduct scenario-based strategic planning. Such planning requires a participatory approach: stakeholders’ engagement, willingness for open and broad reflection, and suitable methodological and analytical tools. Current decision-making structures are narrow, and policies focused on the maintenance of a minimum level of stability and survival. Political actors are lacking impartial platforms where to discuss and exchange views on various future scenarios.

Regional and international actors have diverging approaches to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The approaches by regional states are increasingly driven by national interest. The European actors focus on maintaining stability, statements supportive of a peaceful resolution, and support to the PA in its provision of services. This support remains crucial but is not likely to prevent a continuing, gradual deterioration in the political situation – both between the West Bank and Gaza, and between Palestine and Israel.

In this context, we aim to challenge different groups of Palestinians from youth to political decision-makers to create new ways of thinking and to respond to the potential political changes and shocks that the Palestinians might encounter over the next few years. Through broad and participatory stakeholder engagement at local and national levels, we are mapping alternative future scenarios for Palestine. Through our approach, we aim to increase understanding of how the different scenarios would affect the future of Palestine and the region by studying the potential changes and shocks related to Palestinian political system, Israeli dynamics as well as international power politics.

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